The Critics and Oddsmakers Agree:  The 2005 Academy Award Winners

by Jeff Lewis

Chris Rock better come out swinging on February 27th because he’s got his work cut out for him:  if the online movie critics and bookmakers are to be believed, all but one of the six major awards is a Grand Royal Guaranteed Lock, with the Best Director Oscar leaning heavily towards Martin Scorsese.  Speaking of Scorsese, you better be mentally prepared for a couple of hundred shots of those giant black eyebrows.  I’ve spoken in the past of some irrational fears that I have; I defy you to compile a list more fearful than this:

1.  Swarms of Scorsese eyebrows emerging from the storm drains, searching out carbon-
      based matter to serve as hosts for their parasitic spawn

2.  Toy-size chuck wagon teams, pulled by hyperactive tarantulas

3.  Rats in your compost bin

4.  Blood-sucking moths that are handy with blow torches

5.  The people responsible for Rod Stewart’s 2005 Best Traditional Pop Album Grammy

Anyway, I compiled the Oscar predictions of seventeen critics and four online odds makers, which collectively suggest that there will be few surprises at this year’s Academy Awards, unless you plan to focus on design, sound and the other second-tier awards.  Here are the choices for each category, with the betting odds and, in parentheses, percentage of votes cast by the film critics.  I’ve highlighted Steve’s choices for who deserves to win:

Best Picture
The Aviator – 4:5, (53%)
Million Dollar Baby – 2:1, (21%)
Sideways – 7:1 (21%)
Ray – 14:1
Finding Neverland – 25:1

Best Director
Martin Scorsese, The Aviator – 5:9 (64%)
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby – 4:3 (36%)
Alexander Payne, Sideways – 15: 1
Mike Leigh, Vera Drake – 27:1
Taylor Hackford, Ray – 33:1

Best Actress
Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby – 4:5 (65%)
Annette Bening, Being Julia – 2:1 (18%)
Imelda Staunton, Vera Drake – 9:1
Kate Winslet, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind – 27:1
Catalina Sandino Moreno, Maria Full of Grace – 28:1

Best Actor
Jamie Foxx, Ray – 1:21 (88%)
Leonardo di Caprio, The Aviator – 6:1
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby – 17:1
Don Cheadle, Hotel Rwanda – 21:1
Johnny Depp, Finding Neverland – 21:1

Have you ever seen a 1:21 betting line?  No speech prep necessary for Clint, Don and Johnny.

Best Supporting Actress
Cate Blanchett, The Aviator – 5:8 (80%)
Virginia Madsen, Sideways – 3:1
Natalie Portman, Closer – 4:1
Laura Linney, Kinsey – 12:1
Sophie Okenendo, Hotel Rwanda – 21:1

Best Supporting Actor
Morgan Freeman, Million Dollar Baby – 5:7 (67%)
Thomas Haden Church, Sideways – 2:1 (6%)
Clive Owen, Closer – 5:1 (20%)
Alan Alda, The Aviator – 13:1
Jamie Foxx, Collateral – 22:1

Copyright, Jeff Lewis, 2005.

Jeff can be reached at jeff@babblog.com.

Copyright © 2005, Babblog.  All Rights Reserved.