(Editor's
Note: This article was written after Game Four of the NBA
Finals.)
How
can Larry Brown be a genius when just last week he was
a bonehead? I know how--the genius of his endgame
strategy in Game 2 was completely missed.
If
people want to ask why the Pistons didn't foul Shaq
at the end of Game 2, when the initial inbounds pass
went to him, I think that's a valid question.
The answer is probably that the Pistons didn't anticipate
Shaq receiving the pass. And if they didn't anticipate
it happening, they certainly didn't have time to respond
to it. I mean, Shaq only had the ball for something
like half a second. Should this lack of preparation
be blamed on Larry Brown? Maybe. Like I
said, I think it's a valid question.
But
the majority of the stuff I've seen and heard seems
to suggest that the Pistons should have fouled Kobe
before he had a chance to take that final shot.
I couldn't disagree more. Kobe is shooting a tick
under 33% on 3-pointers for the season, and that 28-footer
wasn't exactly your garden variety 3-pointer.
Judging by his performance from beyond the arc in Games
3 and 4 (he went 2 for 10, and several of those attempts
were pretty tough shots as well), I think it would be
safe to say he had about a 25% chance of making that
shot. And even if he does make it, the game goes
to overtime, where you've got to figure that Pistons
had somewhere around a 40% chance of winning.
Put these two numbers together and the Pistons had an
85% chance of winning Game 2, based on Larry Brown's
choice not to foul Kobe. Yeah, I kind of like those
odds too, even if the 15% did happen to come
through this time.
The
sports radio topic du jour yesterday was, "Who's
returning to the Lakers next year?" The hosts
were certain that Jerry Buss would do whatever necessary
to bring Kobe back. But it was kind of funny:
they had an analyst come on the show, and he started
with the same premise. Then he followed a completely
logical path--if Kobe stays, that means Phil will leave,
that means they have to trade Shaq, it might be too
hard to trade Shaq, Q.E.D. Kobe is probably gone and
Shaq, Phil and Malone return. (Everyone agreed
that Payton already has his bags packed.) But
then the hosts bullied the analyst into agreeing that
Buss will do whatever it takes to keep Kobe, even though
that was the premise he had just disproved! I
think at the end, he actually said, "I totally
agree, there's no way Kobe can leave." I
love the Herd Mentality.
I
agree with the analyst's take that there's a good chance
Kobe's gone next year, and I'll add a couple of reasons
that he didn't mention. First, next year is a
player option for Kobe, and he's been talking about
playing elsewhere all year. He has been known to be
a bit stubborn, so he could easily leave just for the
sake of sticking to his guns. Second, there's
the minor detail of a potential rape conviction hanging
over this whole situation. I think a conviction
could have an affect on his playing for the Lakers next
year, but maybe that's just me.
After
OJ, people probably assume that there's no way a rich
and famous athlete is going to jail, but don't forget
that it happened to Mike Tyson. Of course, it
probably helped that he was both scary and insane.
Do
you think the Lakers have even heard of the concept
of boxing out? It's amazing. If they had
done this consistently throughout the series, they would
have reduced the number of offensive rebounds for the
Pistons AND picked up some extra fouls along the way.
This one thing could very well be the difference between
a 3-1 lead for the Lakers and the 1-3 hole they are
in.
By
the way, I absolutely love the Pistons' technique of
swatting a 50-50 rebound out toward the top of the key.
If you know that's where your guards are, it's a magnificent
strategy.
Why
aren't the Lakers employing the Hack-a-Shaq strategy
on Ben Wallace? He's made only 41.7% of his free throws
FOR HIS CAREER! That's 12% lower than Shaq!
And why did it take until the final minute of Game 4
for any of the announcers to come up with this idea?!?
This completely baffles me.
Here's
something else that baffles me, but that I also enjoy:
There's this fellow I play cards with that insists that
the NBA is fixed. Not as in, "The NBA has
instructed the refs to make sure the Pistons win this
series" fixed, but as in, "The NBA is essentially
the same as the WWF" fixed. You heard me
right-- this guy believes that the NBA is completely
scripted, and that every single coach and player is
in on it. Now, obviously there is no way in hell
this is really true, but it's actually kind of fun to
watch a game from this perspective. Just figure
out what would be in the NBA's best interest and let
the game
unfold in front of you. Soon, every lazy play
on defense, every turnover, and every missed shot looks
like part of one huge conspiracy. (It helps to
assume that an NBA player can knock down an open shot
whenever he pleases. It also helps to know the
point spread, as he claims that those are fixed too.)
You really should try it, it's good fun.
The
conspiracy theorist on the radio yesterday was the more
traditional kind. He was claiming that the NBA
is making sure the Pistons win this series so that the
strength of the Eastern Conference is validated, which
will result in greater interest in future seasons.
This theory ignores the fact that
a Detroit championship would show that a team doesn't
need a superstar to win the title, which probably isn't
good for the NBA.
I
kind of hope there's another conspiracy theorist out
there that believes that the NBA will make sure the
Lakers win this series so that Kobe and Shaq can reaffirm
their greatness. That way, no matter what happens,
one of them will be right and we can keep the conspiracy
dream alive!
I
think it would be fun to make a movie where you take
a high-profile NBA game from the past, one of the great
ones that everyone remembers, and then splice in shots
of rehearsals/stage directions/dialogue, as if it had
really been scripted. I'm sure the NBA would never
let that film be made.
Martell
can be reached at martell@babblog.com.
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