Poker Math: How To Beat Bad Players

Poker Math: How To
Beat Bad Players—Principles 2 and 3
by Martell

Last week, I began explaining a few principles that can help you against those wild, loose players that seem so hard to beat. This week, we’ll continue along that path, explaining two more concepts that can help you deal with a loose player that likes to play extremely aggressively after the flop.

2. Take Raises Seriously

If you find yourself in a game with sophisticated players, the raise can take on a variety of meanings. While it traditionally represents strength, it could also possibly be a value bet, a reaction to weakness on the table, an attempt to gather information, or a ploy to get a free card. Deciphering your opponent’s true intentions normally involves analyzing the present situation, your opponent’s tendencies, and the dynamic of the other players at the table. By imagining yourself in his position, you can then determine the probabilities of each potential action and extrapolate a range of possible hands he might have.

But against loose, wild players, most of that thinking goes out the window. For the most part, a raise means one thing: your opponent believes he has a good hand. This is especially true once the turn has hit. While there is a chance you will get raised by a bluff/draw on the flop, if you get raised (or even worse, check-raised) on the turn or river, it means exactly what it’s supposed to mean. Your opponent has a hand.

The recommendation here depends on your hand—if you have a moderately weak hand, like top pair with no kicker or worse, you should fold. If you have anything else but the nuts, I would proceed with extreme caution. Even if you have a big hand, like top two pair or a set—if the turn made a straight or flush, I would not reraise.

And if you have the nuts, do not get tricky. Reraise. In my playing experience, I cannot remember a single time off the top of my head where a bad player has raised on the turn, been reraised, and then folded. I’m sure I’ve seen it happen, but the fact that I can’t remember it happening should tell you how unlikely it is.

You may be asking, “If the raise on the turn is so golden, then why shouldn’t I fold my two pair and save the two large bets?” That is a valid question. As I titled this principle, you should take raises seriously…

3. …But Not Too Seriously

The funny thing about those raises from bad players is that, as honest and straightforward as they generally are, they do not necessarily represent the nuts. All they represent is a made hand, usually one that improved on the turn. That may mean they have the straight that got there, or they may have turned a set or two pair. If the turn is an overcard to the board, they may even have something as weak as top pair.

Considering the large range of made hands they may have, it would be a large mistake to lay down a hand like top two pair, even if a straight comes on the turn. Let’s look at an example: let’s say you have A 10, the flop is A 10 6, and the turn is a 9. You bet on the flop, bet again on the turn, and get raised. For the moment, we will ignore the possibility of your opponent flopping a set; instead, let’s assume that the 9 improved his hand. He may have made a straight, a set of 9s, or two pair. Let’s look at the likelihood of you being behind.

The hands that can beat you are a set of 9s and the 10-high straight, and the hands you can beat are any two pairs that involve a pair of 9s. There are three combinations of pocket 9s possible (considering one is on the board) and 16 combinations of 8 7, for a total of 19 hands that can beat you. There are six combinations of A 9, six combinations of 10 9, and nine combinations of 9 7, for a total of 21 hands that you can beat. From that standpoint, it is still slightly more likely that you have the best hand. This makes for a clear call (at least).

Even if we add in the odds of your opponent having flopped a set, it still would be incorrect to fold top two pair. There is one remaining combination of pocket Aces, one remaining combination of pocket 10s, and three remaining combinations of pocket 6s. This makes for a total of 24 hands that can beat you, and still 21 hands that you can beat, meaning that you will have the best hand just over 46% of the time.

Considering there must be at least the equivalent of five big bets in the pot already (bet and call before the flop; bet and call on the flop; bet and raise on the turn), with a sixth one likely to come on the river, and it will only cost you two big bets to win the pot, you have to call. In that scenario, you would only need to win the hand 25% of the time to break even, and in most cases, the pot will be even larger than that, meaning you would need to win even less often for a call to be correct.

What it comes down to is that, many bad players don’t really understand the strength of the hands they are up against. I have seen reraises on the turn by someone with a straight even though the board is also showing a flush and is paired. The bad players are, for the most part, simply looking at their own hand without considering the possible hands their opponent could have.

What it probably sounds like I’m suggesting is to become a calling station, and to a degree, that’s correct. But I still see a number of situations where you can use raises and reraises to your advantage. In my next article, I’ll discuss those situations.

Martell can be reached at martell@babblog.com.