Poker Math: How To Beat Bad Players

Poker Math: How To
Beat Bad Players—Principles 4 and 5
by Martell

In my last article, I discussed a couple of principles for dealing with raises from wild, loose players. Essentially, I propose an approach that leads to a large amount of calling in those situations. But this does not mean that you should eliminate raises from your game altogether. This week, we’ll examine a couple of concepts that can help you determine how to reestablish an aggressive, unpredictable persona of your own.

4. Exploit Their Habits

One of the great things about bad players is that they tend to be fairly predictable. There are those players that never bet unless they have the nuts, there are those players that bet any time they flop a pair, and there are those that bet any time it’s been checked around to them. There are other variations on this theme as well, but the rule generally holds: each individual player tends to be internally consistent with their betting style.

In general, a player who takes advantage of his opponents’ habits will make more money than someone who ignores them. Whenever someone is predictable in poker, they are giving away information, and using information is how a good player makes his money. For example, someone may raise with Ace Jack on the button if there are only callers in the pot, but may fold the same hand if the pot has already been three-bet when it gets to him. By using the information about the presence or absence of other raising hands, this player will make more money in the long run than someone who simply memorizes a chart that tells him to raise with Ace Jack on the button.

The information about an opponent’s habits can be used in a similar fashion. Take, for instance, a player that likes to bet if everyone checks, regardless of his hand. This information can be used in a number of ways. If there is a player like that to your left, you should frequently check-raise when you believe you have the best hand, as you will be able to trap other players in the hand that way. If that player is to your right, you can make what I call “isolation raises”—raises with the intention of getting the hand heads-up with the original bettor—whenever you have any sort of hand. In this scenario, you not only take control of the betting, but you also have position, leaving you with a wide range of options on the turn and river. Furthermore, since you are no longer only raising with premium hands (Note: You will still raise with them as well!), it will make it harder for your opponents to put you on a hand, and it will end up being more likely that they will make mistakes against you.

Looking at the opposite situation, if there are players that only bet when they have made hands, you can use that information as well. When those players have called before the flop, or when they are still to act behind you, you can play more borderline drawing hands than normal. When the flop comes and they hit, they will bet, and you can safely lay down your hand (if you don’t have a big draw); when they miss (and for them, this usually means anything less than top pair), you will get the opportunity for a free card to improve your hand, which adds just enough value to make borderline hands profitable.

For example, if you are in middle position with a hand like King Ten offsuit or pocket Fives, and there are mostly conservative non-bluffers behind you, you can take a chance with this type of hand. If you hit the flop, that’s great. But even if the flop is something like Q 9 3, as long as none of them have a Queen, you are going to get a free shot at a Jack (or Five) on the turn, and you may even get another free card on the river. This increased opportunity for free cards adds just enough value to borderline hands to make them playable.

Mind you, this does not mean you should play any two cards against these opponents, nor should you ignore any bets or raises by them. Knowing when they have a hand and getting out of their way is worth a lot of money on its own. But by correctly widening your range of starting hands, you will once again be making it harder for your opponents to figure out what you have, leading to more mistakes and more profits for you.

5. Take Advantage of “Volume Bet” Opportunities

In my opinion, making a volume bet or raise is the most valuable technique for extracting money from bad players. It works like this: you flop something like the nut flush draw, somebody bets, a couple more people call, and you raise. If it gets reraised, you cap it. And the more people in the hand, the better.

You may be asking, “Why shouldn’t I reraise when I have top pair, but be willing to cap it with only a draw?” For many players, this seems completely counterintuitive—and even a little bit crazy. But it’s not. The reasoning is that, when you have a draw that has a high probability of being completed and there are a few other people in the hand, it’s mathematically profitable to get as many bets as possible into the pot.

Let’s take the above example, where you flop the nut flush draw. This is the perfect type of hand with which to employ this strategy. The odds of completing a flush with two cards to come are slightly less than 2 to 1. You don’t know whether it will get there on the turn or on the river, but one way or another, it will get there 1/3 of the time. If you have the opportunity to put one bet into the pot with three callers, you will lose one bet 2/3 of the time, and win three bets 1/3 of the time, for a net profit of one bet every three hands (or 1/3 bet per hand).

Clearly, you should be able to see that it’s profitable to bet in this situation. And if that’s the case, you should try and get as many bets in the pot as possible. If you can make it four bets, that’s four times better—you will lose those four bets 2/3 of the time, but win twelve bets 1/3 of the time, for a net profit of four bets every three hands.

The more people in the hand, the more profitable this strategy will be. Every bet put in by an additional person goes directly to your bottom line 1/3 of the time, and it costs you nothing more to get that money. You still will lose your bets 2/3 of the time. You can also employ this technique with other big draws, like an open-ended straight draw or even a gutshot straight draw with two overcards and a backdoor flush draw. Here’s a rule of thumb you can use: it will be profitable to increase your betting volume whenever the fraction of times you will win the hand (1/3 with a nut flush draw) is bigger than one over the number of people in the hand (1/4 if there are you and three opponents). Just be sure you know how often those drawing hands will become winners.

Yet the real value from this type of play comes from how it affects your table image. If your opponents see that you’re willing to cap the betting with a draw, they will no longer be able to assume you have a made hand when you raise, and they will be more likely to call you. As shown above, this adds value to your hands when you have a draw. But if you are willing to cap it when you flop a big hand as well—let’s say, something like top two pair or better—their calls are worth even more. Frequently, they will be drawing either slim or dead. If adding bets to the pot can be profitable when you will win only 33% of the time, imagine what it’s worth when your chances of winning are 66% or better.

That’s how you can add aggressiveness, unpredictability, and deception to your game without giving up any of your advantage. By betting your “bluffs” (i.e. volume raises) the same way as you bet your strong hands, your opponents will be left guessing, and you will make more money in both situations.

Be warned: these methods are not for the faint of heart. By following these five principles, you will see some wild swings, but over time, you will win a much larger amount of money than you would otherwise. And in the end, you should be able to separate the fools and their money even sooner than the proverb suggests.

Martell can be reached at martell@babblog.com.