Poker Tournament Analysis: GatorScot, 4/20/05

Poker Tournament Analysis: GatorScot, 4/20/05
by Martell

Here is another $11 single-table no-limit holdem tournament. This one was played on April 20, 2005, and was submitted by GatorScot. While I feel his overall play in this tournament was solid, in this article I will mostly focus on his more questionable plays, as they tend to provide the best opportunities to learn.

Hand #3—GatorScot is under the gun with QJ offsuit. He folds.

There is certainly nothing wrong with folding this hand out of position, but it is also the type of hand that you would want to play if you could do so cheaply. Since calling the blind would only cost about 2% of his stack, and since there hadn’t been any raises before the flop on either of the first two hands of the tournament, calling here is something to consider.

Hand #6—GatorScot is the button and is dealt QJ offsuit. Everyone folds to him. He folds.

Here is a good opportunity to take a shot at the blinds. I suggest a raise in the amount of 3-4 times the big blind. Even if you get called, 1) you still may hit the flop, 2) it is likely any callers will check to you on the flop, allowing you to take a free card if you choose, 3) if an Ace or King flops and your opponents check to you, you probably could make a convincing bluff, and 4) if you end up folding after the flop, it only cost around 5% of your stack.

Hand #15—We are now eight-handed and the blinds are now $15/$30. GatorScot has $710 and is dealt AK offsuit in late position. There is one caller and then a raise to $100. GatorScot calls. Everyone else, including the original caller, folds. The pot is $275.

It would be okay to reraise here, if you believe that you probably have the best hand, and you don’t want to make it easy for anyone behind you to call. You definitely want to play this hand heads up. But calling is not that bad of a play either, in that it allows you to get away from the hand if you miss and your opponent bets.

The flop is 9s, 7s, 3d. The original raiser bets $200, GatorScot raises to $400, and the original raiser folds.

This is a very dangerous raise, for a couple of reasons. First off, since the raise is for the minimum amount, it is only likely to elicit a fold from an opponent that is bluffing. Typically, if an opponent bets and then faces a raise of the same amount, he will call, even if he only has a draw. Because of this, a minimum raise is only recommended when you actually want a call. (Of course, if your opponent knows this, and you know that your opponent knows this, you can use the minimum raise as a bluff, but that’s a bit more advanced than most online play.)

Second, what would GatorScot do if he was reraised? Considering that his opponent raised before the flop and bet on the flop, it is much more likely that he will reraise than fold. If his opponent raises him all-in (his opponent had him covered), GatorScot will be facing a call of $310 into a pot of $1385. Is he pot committed, considering he doesn’t even have a pair? The only hands he should fold against are pocket Aces, pocket Kings, or a set—any other hands he has a good enough chance of winning to make the call worthwhile. Against a hand like pocket Jacks, he has about a 25% chance of winning. But if he calls, there could be a 75% chance that he will be knocked out of the tournament, which indicates that a fold may be the most prudent move. On top of that, if he was going to call a reraise all-in, he should have gone all-in himself in the first place, as that would have given him the best chance of winning the pot right there. Whatever the case, a reraise here puts GatorScot in a very difficult position.

Hand #16—GatorScot now has $1085 and is dealt QT offsuit in middle position. There are two callers and GatorScot folds.

Here is another chance to possibly see a flop cheaply with a hand that, if it hits, can probably trap one of your opponents for their whole stack. Still, it is consistent with GatorScot’s extremely tight preflop play, which may have led to his successful bluff with the Ace King last hand.

Hand #17—Still in middle position, GatorScot is dealt pocket Eights. There is one caller, and GatorScot folds.

I could understand either a flat call here (hoping to flop a set cheaply) or a raise (hoping to get the hand heads up), but not a fold. This is much too good of a hand to be letting go of if nobody has raised.

Hand #21—The blinds are now $25/$50. GatorScot has a stack of $1055 and is dealt A9 offsuit in the small blind. Everyone folds to him, and he raises to $100. The big blind calls.

As I’ve mentioned in a previous article, this is an example of a raise without a purpose. This raise isn’t large enough to get any coordinated hands to fold, yet this isn’t a situation where GatorScot wants a caller, especially considering he’s out of position. I recommend a standard raise of 3-4 times the big blind in this situation. Most players will fold any mediocre hands if faced with that type of raise, especially once we’ve reached the point where that means a raise between $150 and $200. If the big blind still calls, it’s easier to put him on a range of hands.

The flop comes Qd, 8h, 6s. GatorScot checks, his opponent bets $200, GatorScot check-raises to $400, and his opponent calls.

What just happened here?!? First off, GatorScot has nothing. There is no reason for him to invest another dollar in this hand, let alone try a check-raise. Second, as mentioned earlier, a player that has already bet and is facing a raise of the same amount will almost always call. If GatorScot is insane enough to try a stone cold bluff check-raise, it may as well be for an amount that might actually get his opponent to fold.

The turn comes the Kc. GatorScot bets $300 and his opponent folds.

GatorScot is down to $555 before this bet. His opponent bet and called a check-raise on the flop, and there were no flush draws and just a couple of low straight draws on the board, indicating that he probably has a pair or better. His opponent started the hand with just $45 more dollars than him, meaning the bet of $300 is exactly half of his opponent’s remaining stack, and just more than half of his own stack.

I must say, the first comment I wrote when I saw this bet was, “Very lucky—just unnecessary gambling.” The more I thought about it, though, the more I came to believe that this was the perfect bet for the situation. Let’s look at it from his opponent’s point of view: GatorScot raised before the flop (albeit for the minimum), check-raised on the flop with essentially no draws on the board, and still bet out even though an overcard came on the turn. His opponent has got to put him on at least a pair of Queens, and probably much better than that.

Based on that read, his opponent has to assume that GatorScot will not fold his hand if reraised, since he only has $255 left, so it looks like a bluff raise will not work here (even though folding is exactly what GatorScot would do!). The only way his opponent believes he can win would be to catch up on the river, which seems either unlikely or impossible. Also, that small bet just screams out for a call, which should further convince a hand like a small pair to fold. And finally, if his opponent has enough of a hand to raise, GatorScot has the opportunity to survive by folding, which he wouldn’t have if he had gone all-in.

I almost always prefer exerting the maximum pressure possible once one’s stack gets small, but in this case, I think the smaller bet was the better move.

Hand #31—GatorScot has $1555 and is dealt T9 offsuit in late position. The blinds have just gone up to $50/$100. Everyone folds to him, and he folds.

Clearly, there is nothing wrong with folding Ten-Nine offsuit in any position. Staying out of trouble is an important part of winning tournaments. That being said, finding opportunities to steal the blinds is another important part of winning tournaments, and this was a prime opportunity for GatorScot to do just that.

First off, he was one seat to the right of the button, which I think is the best seat from which to steal the blinds. Players generally suspect a raise from the button when there are no callers, but other seats tend to have their raises taken more seriously. On top of that, there were no other callers in the hand. So many times, I see someone throw in a bluff raise when there are already one or two callers. If someone has already shown a voluntary choice to play his hand, it will take a much more significant raise to get him to fold. That is, if he’s not setting a trap.

Also, the game has been fairly tight, so there is a good chance the blinds will fold. (I haven’t detailed every hand, so you wouldn’t necessarily know this, but almost every hand has been heads up before the flop. This is a pretty good indication of a tight game.) Furthermore, GatorScot has built up a very tight image, which also makes a successful steal more likely. Most opponents will lay down everything but their most premium hands in this situation.

Another important aspect of this hand is that the blinds just went up, and to a fairly significant level. A standard raise of 4 times the big blind would be $400, which would appear quite large compared to previous raises. This would also be at least 30% of any other player’s stack, which once again would dissuade all but the most premium hands from calling. And finally, GatorScot has enough of a stack that, if someone comes over the top of him and he has to lay the hand down, he won’t be crippled.

Hand #33—GatorScot is dealt AT offsuit in middle position. One opponent calls and GatorScot raises the minimum to $200. Everyone else folds, and the original caller calls.

You know I’m not a fan of the minimum raise. It’s a raise without a purpose. Let’s move on.

The flop comes Th, 9d, 5d. His opponent checks, GatorScot bets $200, and his opponent folds.

That’s a good amount to raise if you want a caller. Unfortunately, this isn’t the type of hand where you want a caller. There are too many scare cards that could come on the turn—a diamond, an eight, or any picture—so it’s better just to win the pot right here. A pot-sized bet of $550 would have been the minimum I would have bet here. GatorScot got lucky that his opponent either didn’t have anything at all or just made a mistake, as the bet wasn’t large enough to make any sort of draw correctly fold.

Hand #36—In the big blind, GatorScot was dealt A8 suited. Everyone folds to the button, who raises the minimum to $200. The small blind reraises to $300. GatorScot calls.

There is no reason to call this bet. Not only has there been a raise and reraise—which indicates that A8 is probably dominated by at least one bigger Ace—but now the betting has been reopened for the original raiser to reraise again. This is a perfect example of when to stay out of trouble. Let these two fight it out.

The button reraises again to $600. The small blind calls and GatorScot folds.

Fortunately, GatorScot came to his senses and got out of the hand while the damage to his stack was still minimal. (Incidentally, the original raiser had pocket Aces and flopped a set. Staying out of trouble indeed!)

Hand #43—Still eight-handed, the blinds are now $100/$200. GatorScot is dealt pocket 6s under the gun and folds.

I agree with this play, especially considering that GatorScot was under the gun. Considering how tight the game was, a standard raise of $800 may very well have taken the blinds, but with the whole field left to act behind him, there was really no reason to take that risk. This is simply a reminder that being in position is a critical aspect of attacking the blinds.

Hand #47—Now five-handed, GatorScot has $1255 and is dealt A5 offsuit in late position. The first player raises to $600 and GatorScot folds.

This is a very good play that illustrates how a hand value changes when the difference is between opening for a raise and calling a raise. Shorthanded and in late position, any hand with an Ace can be considered a raising hand, as long as you are the first one in. To call a raise, though, requires a very good Ace or a medium pocket pair or higher. The difference is, with the opening raise, you can win by stealing the blinds or by ending up with the best hand. When you call a raise, though, you can only win by ending up with the best hand. (This assumes that either your opponent’s raise or your call makes one of you pot committed, which is usually the case once the blinds are this high.)

Hand #54—Now four-handed, the blinds are $150/$300. GatorScot has $955 and is dealt pocket 5s in the small blind. The first player raises to $685. The button, who has $685 left, folds, as does GatorScot.

This play is debatable, but I would argue that it is a good fold, even though GatorScot is short-stacked. Since the top three players get money and there is a shorter stack that will hit the blinds first, it is not worth trying to win a coin toss at this time.

Hand #59—GatorScot has just knocked out another player and has $1245. He is dealt pocket Jacks on the button and raises to $900. The small blind folds and the big blind calls his remaining $470 with 86 offsuit. The pocket Jacks hold up.

GatorScot is pot-committed with this raise, so there is no reason to bet only $900. In this case, it didn’t make a difference, but there will be times where that extra $345 will inspire an opponent to fold.

Hand #60—Heads up, GatorScot has $2165 and is dealt J8 offsuit in the big blind. His opponent raises the minimum to $600 and GatorScot calls.

There is no need to call this bet with this hand. Heads up, it is always better to be the raiser, without even considering that GatorScot is out of position.

The flop comes Qs, Th, 3s. GatorScot bets $600 and his opponent folds.

A daring bet, to be sure, but not a very wise one. Clearly GatorScot didn’t want a call here, yet he wasn’t willing to use even half of his remaining stack to try and force his opponent to fold. And considering that this is the type of flop that hits a wide range of raising hands, it wasn’t like he was making a calculated bluff on a rag flop. He simply gambled and got lucky that his opponent missed.

Hand #65—With the blinds now $200/$400, GatorScot has $2765 and is dealt pocket 5s in the small blind. He raises it to $800 and his opponent folds.

At 7 times the big blind, you are in all-in mode. You don’t want to leave your opponent room to try a bluff reraise, as it leaves you with a very difficult decision to make. Force him to make the decision instead. And even if he doesn’t reraise, this size of bet does little to force out marginal hands like QJ offsuit and JT suited—hands that play very well against a small pocket pair.

Hand #68—GatorScot now has $3365 and is dealt A7 offsuit in the small blind. He raises to $800, and his opponent calls.

It was only a matter of time before GatorScot’s opponent called one of these minimum raises.

The flop comes Ac, 7c, 5h. His opponent bets $3835 and GatorScot calls all-in. His opponent shows 9c, 4c. The turn is the 9d, and the river is the Kc. GatorScot’s opponent wins with a flush.

Clearly, GatorScot had to call his opponent’s all-in bet. He was about a 2 to 1 favorite to win the hand after the flop, and he just got unlucky that his opponent made his flush. While GatorScot could be happy that he got all his chips in the pot with a 2 to 1 advantage, it is worth considering that a larger raise would likely have forced his opponent to fold preflop, thus avoiding any chance of going busted. In tournament play, winning a small pot risk-free is nearly always the preferred option.

Overall, though, you have to like GatorScot’s play in this tournament. Very rarely did he get involved with subpar hands; that type of discipline will serve him well as he hones his tournament skills.

Martell can be reached at martell@babblog.com.