Should Barry Bonds
Be Intentionally Walked?  Part 3
by Martell

Okay, it's been a while since I last addressed this subject.  Over the last few weeks, I've been able to put together a spreadsheet to analyze what happens when Barry Bonds is allowed to hit, and what happens when he isn't.  For those who have forgotten, here's a quick summary of the methodology:

  1. Choose a Giants batting order.
  2. Determine the odds of outs, singles, doubles, triples, home runs and walks (non-intentional) for Bonds and everyone behind him in the lineup.
  3. Multiply the odds of each combination of occurrences together, thereby determining a percentage chance of each combination.
  4. Multiply each of THOSE percentages times the number of runs that would score in each scenario, thereby determining the expected runs (all very small fractions) from each combination.
  5. Add all those fractional runs together to get the expected runs from allowing him to hit, for each base runner scenario.
  6. Do the same thing all over again, only this time with Bonds always being walked.

Did I say "quick summary?"  My mistake.  Hopefully it's now obvious why I haven't been able to write about this for so long.

Okay, let's get to the numbers.  But first, two more bits of information.  First, I have only included the four batters behind Bonds in the lineup.  This may skew the results, possibly even more than .001 run.  In other words, no big deal.  Second, I have only analyzed two-out situations so far--but I have now done all of them, including all possible combinations of runners on base.

And now, the moment you've all been waiting for...

TO WALK, OR NOT TO WALK:

LINEUP
======
Bonds
Feliz
Pierzynski
Grissom
D. Cruz
Exp. Runs When Bonds Hits
Exp. Runs When
Bonds Is Walked
Empty
  0.217557221
  0.277004103
1
  0.455897804
  0.545760234
2
  0.548437258
  0.545760234
3
  0.548437258
  0.545760234
1,2
  0.795747158
  0.839877881
1,3
  0.795747158
  0.839877881
2,3
  0.888286613
  0.839877881
Loaded
  1.292698377
  1.839877881


In case this is confusing, the first column shows the number of runners on base and which bases they are on.  The second column shows the number of runs the Giants would statistically expect to score if Bonds were allowed to hit.  The third column shows the number of runs the Giants would statistically expect to score if Bonds were intentionally walked.  And once again, these are only the situations where there are two outs.

One of the first things you should notice is that most of the numbers in the "Bonds Hits" column are lower than those in the "Bonds Walks" column, and those that aren't are just a tiny bit higher.  Indeed, this means what you think it means:  Walking Barry Bonds costs a team runs, in comparison to allowing him to hit.  It doesn't cost them much--at the most, about 1/11 of a run (not counting intentionally walking him with the bases loaded, which has only happened once in his career)--but it costs them.

Over the course of a three-game series, an opposing team could easily be giving the Giants an additional half a run.  For teams in their division, playing them 18 times a season, that adds up to an additional three runs a season.  Three additional runs.  The Giants winning one more game against the Padres and Dodgers than they should.  Aren't the Padres trailing the Giants by 1 and 1/2 games in the Wild Card race?

Martell can be reached at martell@babblog.com.

 

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