Okay,
it's been a while since I last addressed this subject.
Over the last few weeks, I've been able to put together
a spreadsheet to analyze what happens when Barry Bonds
is allowed to hit, and what happens when he isn't.
For those who have forgotten, here's a quick summary
of the methodology:
1.
Choose a Giants batting order.
2.
Determine the odds of outs, singles, doubles, triples,
home runs and walks (non-intentional) for Bonds and
everyone behind him in the lineup.
3.
Multiply the odds of each combination of occurrences
together, thereby determining a percentage chance of
each combination.
4.
Multiply each of THOSE percentages times the number
of runs that would score in each scenario, thereby determining
the expected runs (all very small fractions) from each
combination.
5.
Add all those fractional runs together to get the expected
runs from allowing him to hit, for each base runner
scenario.
6.
Do the same thing all over again, only this time with
Bonds always being walked.
Did
I say "quick summary?" My mistake.
Hopefully it's now obvious why I haven't been able to
write about this for so long.
Okay,
let's get to the numbers. But first, two more
bits of information. First, I have only included
the four batters behind Bonds in the lineup. This
may skew the results, possibly even more than .001 run.
In other words, no big deal. Second, I have only
analyzed two-out situations so far--but I have now done
all of them, including all possible combinations of
runners on base.
And
now, the moment you've all been waiting for...
TO
WALK, OR NOT TO WALK:
LINEUP
======
Bonds
Feliz
Pierzynski
Grissom
D. Cruz
|
Exp.
Runs When Bonds Hits |
Exp.
Runs When Bonds Is Walked |
Empty |
0.217557221
|
0.277004103 |
1 |
0.455897804
|
0.545760234 |
2 |
0.548437258
|
0.545760234 |
3 |
0.548437258
|
0.545760234 |
1,2 |
0.795747158
|
0.839877881 |
1,3 |
0.795747158
|
0.839877881 |
2,3 |
0.888286613
|
0.839877881 |
Loaded |
1.292698377
|
1.839877881 |
In case this is confusing, the first column shows the
number of runners on base and which bases they are on.
The second column shows the number of runs the Giants
would statistically expect to score if Bonds were allowed
to hit. The third column shows the number of runs
the Giants would statistically expect to score if Bonds
were intentionally walked. And once again, these
are only the situations where there are two outs.
One
of the first things you should notice is that most of
the numbers in the "Bonds Hits" column are
lower than those in the "Bonds Walks" column,
and those that aren't are just a tiny bit higher.
Indeed, this means what you think it means: Walking
Barry Bonds costs a team runs, in comparison to allowing
him to hit. It doesn't cost them much--at the
most, about 1/11 of a run (not counting intentionally
walking him with the bases loaded, which has only happened
once in his career)--but it costs them.
Over
the course of a three-game series, an opposing team
could easily be giving the Giants an additional half
a run. For teams in their division, playing them
18 times a season, that adds up to an additional three
runs a season. Three additional runs. The
Giants winning one more game against the Padres and
Dodgers than they should. Aren't the Padres trailing
the Giants by 1 and 1/2 games in the Wild Card race?
Martell
can be reached at martell@babblog.com.
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