The Voices of Reason: The AL Playoff Picture

The Voices of Reason: The AL Playoff Picture
by Various Authors

There are only about three weeks left in the baseball season and the American League playoff picture is still completely up in the air. Good thing we have the Voices of Reason to decipher the situation for us...

Question: Which two of the following five teams will not make the post season, and why—Anaheim, Boston, Cleveland, New York or Oakland?

Bob Jensen—In my opinion, this is a four horse race...and Cleveland is not one of those horses. I just don't believe that they have the overall team strength to get it done. The strongest argument for Cleveland is that they are not in a division with any of the other four.

The four horse race is a pick 'em at this point. I would not be surprised to see any of the four win the World Series and would not be that surprised to see any of the four out of the playoffs completely. I hate the Yankees the most, so I will just go with them and hope that I am correct.

Mike Daniels—Right to the point: Oakland won't make the playoffs because of injuries, and New York won't make the playoffs because of pitching.

Cleveland has the easiest schedule and should squeak in the backdoor without anyone looking. Can you imagine Cleveland in the playoffs again? Wow.

I think Boston and the ANAHEIM Angels will win the divisions.

Vance Macdonald—Even though the NL wildcard will surely go down to the last weekend, upon closer inspection, Martell was spot on to focus on the AL (and that is not just my New England roots bias talking). Not only will we be treated once again to a Boston-NY dogfight, and a now-customary LAA-Oak dogfight, but this year the left coasters have similar records to the eastern powerhouses, making for a Royal Rumble Steel Cage Match of epic proportions.

But wait—surely throwing the Indians into the mix was a mistake, right? The A's are the low-budget representative in the group above, at less than a third of the Yankees payroll. And the Indians have a payroll $20M less than the A's. You'd be forgiven for thinking that they are just on a flukey winning streak to momentarily creep into contention. But you'd also be wrong. Their expected win/loss record (based on runs scored vs. runs allowed) is actually BETTER than both the Red Sox and Yankees! CC Sabathia has given up an average of 4 hits in hist last 3 starts. Kevin Millwood has given up only 21 earned runs in his last 9 starts. Nine players in double-digit HRs. Victor Martinez is hitting .384 since the All-Star break.

Boston and NY beat each other up, Oak and LA beat each other up, and the loser of those two battles each miss out on the wildcard as Cleveland beats up on KC, TB, and a coasting Chi. Isn't this the perfect recipe for a Cinderella story? Sorry, not in this fairytale.

1) Boston has the best home record in baseball, and more home games remaining than any of the other contenders. Their pitching, helped by some young guns, is rounding into form. They are in.

2) Oakland is dominating every pitching category since the All-Star break. Unfortunately, they can't hit and have a tough schedule (including a ten-game road trip vs. Bos, Cle, and Tex). The Angels aen't exactly on fire, but I am giving them the West crown by virtue of their current 1.5 game lead, and easier remaining scheudule.

3) That leaves Oak, NY, and Cle for the wildcard. Aside from 7 games with the Sox, the Yankees will feast on nothing but TB, Toronto, and Baltimore. End of story. Besides, George always finds a way. He will simply will them to the wildcard.

Sorry Cleveland and Oakland, as much as I would enjoy having a low-payroll underdog in the playoffs, it won't be this year. Now we just need to make sure the Padres finish above .500.

Martell—Well, the professional gambler in me took one look at this question and said, "This looks like a giant expectation problem!" And that's exactly how I've treated it. Careful statistical analysis should lead me to the solution...

My first step was to find the expected win percentage for every American League team, based on their runs scored. This led to some interesting discoveries.

1) The White Sox have won 5 more games than they should have, while the Indians have won 2 fewer games. Instead of being 7 1/2 games behind the Central leaders, the Indians should only be 1/2 game back.

2) Boston has won 4 more games than they should have, while the Yankees have won 2 more. Instead of being 3 games back, the Yankees should only trail by 1 game.

3) The Angels have won 2 fewer games than they should have, but the Oakland A's have won 5 fewer games. Instead of being a game back, the A's should be 2 games ahead.

What does this tell me, aside from the fact that luck plays a role in every baseball season? It tells me how we should expect these teams to play going forward. The Indians are just as good as the White Sox, the Yankees are just a touch worse than the Red Sox, and the A's are a touch better than the Angels.

My next step was to calculate a weighted expected winning percentage for their remaining opponents. By using their expected record (instead of their actual record), I was able to get a better gauge on their opponents' true abilities. I then weighted those percentages based on how many games would be played against each team. Obviously having seven games versus the Royals is better than having three games against them. Here's what I found:

Strength of Schedule
Oakland—.538
Anaheim—.501
Boston—.500
Cleveland—.478
New York—.477

Things don't look good for the A's. Not only have they been unlucky, but they will also have the hardest time making up ground.

But shouldn't their luck even out? In theory, shouldn't they win some games they're supposed to lose, so that the win/loss ledger gets closer to being balanced? If so, here's what the final standings should look like:

Final Standings If Luck Evens Out
Boston—90-72
New York—89-73

Chicago—93-69
Cleveland—93-69!

Oakland—94-68
LA Angels—93-69

Boston would win the East by one game, Oakland would win the West by one game, Chicago and Cleveland would have a one-game playoff for the Central crown...and Anaheim would get the Wild Card. That's right. The loser of the Chicago/Cleveland game would be 93-70, 1/2 game behind Anaheim. Chicago could possibly miss the playoffs altogether.

Unfortunately, there's no rule that stipulates that luck must even out. In fact, with so few games remaining, the odds are strongly against it happening. For a more accurate prediction, what we really should be looking at is expected performance going forward combined with actual past results. That will tell us where each team should finish. And with that, through Friday's games, here are my predictions for the AL playoff picture:

Expected Final Standings
Boston—94-68
New York—91-71

Chicago—99-63
Cleveland—92-70

LA Angels—91-71
Oakland—90-72

It looks like I agree with Mike. New York will miss winning the wild card by 1 game, and Oakland will miss winning the West by 1 game (and the wild card by 2 games).

Of course, the "luck doesn't have to even out" rule cuts both ways, and the A's or the Yankees—or both—could still end up playing into October. Personally, I'll be rooting for the A's to buck the odds and make it to the postseason. But I won't be betting on it.

To submit a topic for The Voices of Reason, or to be added to the VoR Shout Out List, send an e-mail to martell@babblog.com.